Paddy Power has opened a book on which airline will go bust next, and claims that the UK’s largest charter airline, Monarch, is favourite to fold.

The Irish bookmaker claims that in the past seven days more than 100 bets have been placed on Monarch, shortening the airline’s odds from 50/1 to 4/1 to be the next airline to go bankrupt.

A Paddy Power spokesman told Times Online: “Almost 8 out of every 10 bets placed over the last week have been on Monarch. It’s following a similar pattern to XL Airways last year.”

Monarch has catagorically refuted the claim. A spokesman issued this statement: “Monarch is the UK’s oldest airline still operating under its original brand name and will enter into its 42nd year of flying in 2010. The airline is privately owned by wealthy shareholders and has accumulated substantial assets in its balance sheet over its 41 years of profitable trading.

“Monarch is one of the UK’s leading low cost airlines and is the airline of choice for independent tour operators in the UK. It has recently launched a series of new routes to Turkey for Summer 2010 and has invested close to $1bn USD in a fleet of six Boeing 787 Dreamliners. It will be the second UK airline to take delivery of these aircraft. Monarch is currently 2% ahead on scheduled load factors for December 2009 compared to the same month last year, with forward bookings into 2010 ahead of forecasts.”

The airline offers both charter and schedule flights, and serves more than 100 destinations from the UK with a fleet of 100 aircraft. It carriers around 7 million passengers a year.

Monarch has reacted angrily to the claim, suggesting it is a promotion stunt by the bookmakers, which admits it is “famous for its mischievous and sometimes irreverent promotional campaigns”.

The bookmaker’s predictions are, of course, purely speculative and not based on any other indicators.

Passengers who have bookings to fly with Monarch over the coming months would be refunded or offered alternative flights in the event of bankruptcy as long as their flight booking is part of a package or is Atol-protected.

Customers who buy scheduled flights directly from an airline which then goes bankrupt, must appeal to their travel insurer or credit card provider for a refund in the event of airline bankruptcy.

Paddy Power started taking bets on airline bankruptcies in September 2008. As soon as betting opened, odds on XL Airways shortened from around 4/1 to near evens following bets from around 200 punters, before betting was suspended and the carrier announced bankruptcy in September 2008. The bookmakers paid out £15,000.

Current joint second favourite to go bust are Polish carrier Wizz Air and the Finnish flag carrier Finnair, at 11/2. These are followed by Malev at 13/2 and Aer Arann at 9/1. The full list is below.

British Airways is at 11/1, and contrary to expectations, its odds have lengthened in the days following the proposed strike action over Christmas. The spokesman said that only seven bets have been placed on the British flag carrier in the past seven days.

Paddy Power odds at 10am, December 29: next airline to go bust

4/1 Monarch

11/2 Wizz Air

11/2 Finnair

13/2 Malev

9/1 Aer Arann

10/1 Spanair

10/1 Jet2

11/1 BA

14/1 Aer Lingus

14/1 Thomson Airways

16/1 Vueling Airlines

18/1 Bmibaby

20/1 Qantas

20/1 Air Berlin

25/1 Scandinavian airlines

33/1 United Airlines

33/1 Aegean Airlines

33/1 Air One

40/1 Thomas Cook Airlines

MY PROFILE SHOP JOBS PROPERTY CLASSIFIEDS
50/1 JetBlue

66/1 Czech Airlines

80/1 easyJet

80/1 Virgin Atlantic

80/1 Ryanair

100/1 Lufthansa

100/1 Air France-KLM

100/1 Aeroflot

100/1 Turkish Airlines

100/1 Singapore Airlines

500/1 Vatican Airlines

1000/1 Air Force One

(Via Original Source)

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